Credit Risk - Default Probability - Loss Severity | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2024)

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Credit Risk - Default Probability - Loss Severity | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2)

fixed-income

06 Sep 2019

Credit risk is the risk of loss resulting from a borrower’s failure to make full and timely payments of interest and/or principal. Credit risk is made up of 2 components:

  • default risk or default probability: probability that a borrower will violate the terms of the debt security;
  • loss severity or loss given default: the portion of the value of a bond, including unpaid interest, an investor loses in the event of default.

Expected Loss

Credit risk is reflected in the distribution of potential losses that may arise if an investor is not paid in full and on time. It is common practice to summarize the risk with a single default probability and loss severity so as to simply focus on the expected loss:

$$ \text{Expected loss = Default probability} × \text{Loss given default} $$

Loss Severity

Loss severity could be expressed either as a monetary amount (e.g., $250,000) or as a percentage of the principal amount (e.g., 35%). In addition, loss severity, or loss given default, is also expressed as (1- Recovery rate), where the recovery rate is described as the percentage of the principal amount recovered in the event of default.

Question

An analyst estimates that a bond issue has a 20% probability of default over the next year and the recovery rate in the event of default is 80%. If a firm holds $1 million worth of this bond issue, then the expected loss is closest to:

  1. $40,000
  2. $160,000
  3. $640,000

Solution

The correct answer is A.

Expected loss = Default probability × Loss given default

Loss given default = (1 – Recovery rate) = 1 – 80% = 20%

Expected loss = 20%× 20% = 4%

In dollar amount: $1 million × 4% = $40,000

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    Sergio Torrico

    2021-07-23

    Excelente para el FRM 2Escribo esta revisión en español para los hispanohablantes, soy de Bolivia, y utilicé AnalystPrep para dudas y consultas sobre mi preparación para el FRM nivel 2 (lo tomé una sola vez y aprobé muy bien), siempre tuve un soporte claro, directo y rápido, el material sale rápido cuando hay cambios en el temario de GARP, y los ejercicios y exámenes son muy útiles para practicar.

    Credit Risk - Default Probability - Loss Severity | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (8)

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    2021-07-17

    So helpful. I have been using the videos to prepare for the CFA Level II exam. The videos signpost the reading contents, explain the concepts and provide additional context for specific concepts. The fun light-hearted analogies are also a welcome break to some very dry content.I usually watch the videos before going into more in-depth reading and they are a good way to avoid being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of content when you look at the readings.

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    2021-07-16

    A great curriculum provider. James sir explains the concept so well that rather than memorising it, you tend to intuitively understand and absorb them. Thank you ! Grateful I saw this at the right time for my CFA prep.

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    2021-06-28

    Very well explained and gives a great insight about topics in a very short time. Glad to have found Professor Forjan's lectures.

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    Credit Risk - Default Probability - Loss Severity | CFA Level 1 - AnalystPrep (2024)

    FAQs

    What is the pass rate for the CFA Level 1 exam? ›

    Exam Pass Rates by Level

    From 2012 to 2022, pass rates for the level 1 exam have averaged 41%. Since 2020, the average has been hovering around 37%.

    Is it normal to fail CFA level 1? ›

    Very few candidates pass all three CFA exams on their first attempt. CFA Institute estimates it takes the average successful candidate four years to complete the CFA Program. So failing one level, if not two, makes you an average candidate. It is difficult for most candidates entering the program to accept this.

    How much is it to retake CFA level 1? ›

    If you retake any level of the CFA exam, you will be charged the same examination fee. The fee will range from $700 to $1,450, depending on when you register to retake the exam. In addition, if you used a CFA exam preparation software solution, you may be charged a fee if you have to extend its use.

    What is the loss severity 1 recovery rate? ›

    In addition, loss severity, or loss given default, is also expressed as (1- Recovery rate), where the recovery rate is described as the percentage of the principal amount recovered in the event of default.

    What is the hardest subject in CFA Level 1? ›

    Hardest topics by CFA Level

    Generally, our research shows that candidates' CFA Level 1 hardest topics are Financial Statement Analysis, Fixed Income, Quantitative Methods, Derivatives and Economics.

    Is 3 months enough for CFA level 1? ›

    No, studying for any CFA exam in less than 6 months will not give you enough time to adequately prepare unless you have a relevant background in the curriculum. According to CFA Institute, candidates study on average 348 hours for the Level I exam, 364 hours for the Level II exam, and 365 hours for the Level III exam.

    Does CFA Level 1 mean anything? ›

    The CFA Level 1 is the first of three. As a quick introduction, the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exams are a series of three exams issued by the CFA institute. Upon completion of all three, successful candidates become CFA “Charterholders” and earn their CFA designation.

    Is 2 months enough for CFA Level 1 reddit? ›

    Yes. I did it with pretty much 2ish weeks of 6 hours a day and then some other days sprinkled in over the previous 2 months. I only did ~100-120 hrs of studying.

    Is CFA harder than CPA? ›

    CFA vs CPA Exam difficulty

    Both are challenging and require gaining skills and knowledge in complex topics. However, the CPA Exam generally requires less studying - around 80 to 120 hours per section compared to 300 hours per section of the CFA Exam, and the CPA Exam also has a higher pass rate.

    How long does it take to study for CFA level 1? ›

    CFA Institute recommends you aim to spend at least 300 hours preparing for the Level I exam. Schweser's Prepare • Practice • Perform® methodology gives you the structure you need to get the most out of the time you spend preparing.

    What happens after you pass CFA Level 1? ›

    Based on these numbers, if you've passed Level I, the job roles most likely available to you are intern, accountant or assistant accounting manager, investment administrator, fund analyst, investment product analyst, and junior equity research analyst (which is often the first step toward getting into asset management ...

    What is the difference between severity 1 and severity 2? ›

    Severity 1 - A critical incident with a very high impact. It often involves a complete system outage, customer data loss, major security breaches, or critical infrastructure failures. Severity 2 - A major incident with a significant impact. It could include partial system disruptions or affect critical functionalities.

    What is the definition of severity 1? ›

    Typically, the lower the severity number, the more impactful the incident. For example: At Atlassian, we define a SEV (severity) 1 incident as “a critical incident with very high impact.” This could include a customer data loss, a security breach, or when a client-facing service is down for all customers.

    What is acceptable recovery rate? ›

    For most residue analytical method guidelines, an acceptable recovery range is 70 to 120% (9–11) with means in between 70 to 120% (10) or 70 to 110% (11) (depending on the regulatory guideline) at each fortification level.

    Which CFA exam is the hardest? ›

    Many CFA charterholders consider the Level 3 CFA Exam the most difficult because of the time and thought needed to answer the constructed responses successfully. While the typical Level 3 CFA Exam pass rates are the highest of the CFA Exams, only around 56% of CFA candidates pass the exam.

    How many hours to study for CFA level 1? ›

    Studying for the CFA Level I exam is crucial, and it takes a substantial effort. There are no shortcuts. The one thing standing between you and success on the Level I CFA® Program exam is hard work. CFA Institute recommends you aim to spend at least 300 hours preparing for the Level I exam.

    Is passing CFA level 2 a big deal? ›

    There are three tests to take before you become a charter member. The Level II test is the second, so when you complete it, you only have one more to go. Passing the Level II exam also demonstrates your dedication to your career and learning and can result in increased opportunities in your professional life.

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